Challenging J. Hart

The task ahead for Wolfsberger AC is huge. They will face Tottenham, one of the best teams of the group stages in the round of 32. To make matters worse, their "home" game will be played in Budapest and their best player is falling out with his head coach, starting only one of the three games before the European clash.

Are there any chances for WAC in the clash? Well, not really. According to fbref.com, Tottenham have created the joint-most expected goals in the Europa League group stage (alongside fellow London club Arsenal) and were the fifth-best team in terms of xG conceded. Along the way, they outplayed WAC's domestic rivals LASK two times, although they only managed to turn that into one win and one draw. 

Compare that to the carinthians' numbers, and you see that there is not only a difference in terms of budget and squad quality, but also in performances. Only Dundalk and Qarabaq Agdam created less xG than them, both of which finished their respective group in last position. Both in terms of chances created and conceded (penalties excluded), WAC were actually the worst team in their group, making it a remarkable achievement to reach the round of last 32 teams.

The only true weakness (besides underestimating their opponents and arrogance, but you wouldn't rely on those) and therefore focal point could be Tottenham's usual starting keeper in European matches, Joe Hart. The former Manchester City player has started five of the six group stage games this season and conceded already around one goal more than an average keeper would given the shots he faced. One might argue that five games and three post-shot xG are too small a sample size to draw any conclusions, but in fact Hart also underperformed expectations at his previous clubs West Ham and Burnley, where he played more games.

Likewise, SmarterScout rates him below average in terms of shot stopping, both in the case of open play as well as set-pieces. When rated against the average goalkeeper in the Europa League, he features especially bad against headers (7 resp. 8 on a scale from 0 to 99). So, there is definitely a weakness to exploit. Both teams are at the same level in terms of aerial duels won, hence the way to go could be working the ball forward, crossing it into the box and trying to force Hart into saves which he does not perform at a high level. Given that Wolfsberg are the team with the second-highest amount of long balls played in the group stage, they should be able set up a direct and aerials-based match plan.

For this to happen, they will however have to shoot. They shot 8.5 times in the group stage games, coincidentally the same number Spurs conceded. Whether this will be enough remains to be seen.

A clash of styles

Salzburg's upcoming opponent Villarreal, having installed Unai Emery as their new head coach last summer, have since then changed their style towards a more passive and patient way of play. They have more of the ball and pass it more than last season, but they are shooting almost three times per game less than in the previous year. Their gain in possession serves more as a defensive tool, in that they are keeping the ball to prevent their opponents from creating chances. According to numbers by fbref.com, they have been able to reduce the number of shots conceded per game from around 12 to nine. This improvement is reflected in their underlying numbers. Meanwhile their expected goals per game in league games fell only slightly from 1.5 to 1.44, they reduced their xG conceded from 1.17 to 0.87. This amounts on average to a goal every three games, or around twelve goals conceded less over the course of a season.

Their change in approach has also affected their pressing games. While they were the seventh-most active team in pressing opponents last season in La Liga, they fell to the eleventh position in this regard in the current year. Although they do try to win the ball back a little more in higher areas of the pitch, in the first and second third of the pitch they put their opponents under much less pressure when out of possession than last year.

In the Europa League, they are even the least active team out of possession out of all teams which made it into the group stages. They pressured their opponents only 106 times per game, almost one hundred occasions less per game than the most active team in this regard (Salzburg's Austrian fellows Wolfsberger AC). One might argue that high levels of pressure are not paramount to their style of play given their high levels of possession, but the relationship between much possession and little pressing is not straightforward. Leverkusen for instance, who enjoyed one percentage point more possession than Villarreal, were the fifth-most pressing team in the group stage.

Their more passive approach might rather be a conscious choice, given the congested fixture list this season with less room to recover between games. It did however not affect their performances negatively; they created the fifth-most expected goals and where even the most defensively sound teams of the 48 in the group stage, allowing their opponents only 0.46 xG per game (all data for non-penalty shots).

Salzburg, on the other hand, couldn't play more differently. Their high-risk, high-reward style of play when having the ball causes them to have less possession than their opponents in this year's CL group stage and to be among the teams with the lowest pass success rate (only three of 32 teams completed less of their passes). After winning the ball back, they try to get it forwards as quickly as possible, not paying too much attention to possession and pass success figures.

Yet against the ball, they are among the most active teams. They disrupt their opponents' passes at the third-best rate of all teams in the group stage, behind only Ajax and Bayern. When their opponent has the ball, they are the second-most active team, tackling and pressing like wild all over the pitch. Only their partner club RB Leipzig has worked even more actively against the ball during the six games of the group stage. Although they left the competition, finishing third in their group which also included Bayern and Atlético, their style was equally successful; they created the third-most non-penalty expected goals of all teams and were an average team defensively (1.19 xG conceded per game). With luck a little more on their side, they could have easily made it to the round of last 16.

So, Thursday's encounter will likely be a clash of football styles, with Villarreal trying to keep the ball, move it around patiently and attack without taking to many risks. Salzburg will play their part, hunt the ball on every opportunity and look for the most direct way to goal after winning it back. The game will most likely be won by the team which is better in focusing on what they can and less on what the opponent wants them to.

One detail which could be decisive is the role of the goalkeepers. Salzburg will field Cican Stankovic, who is at least now not questioned by the club. Villarreal have played all international games so far with Geronimo Rulli instead of regular starter Sergio Asenjo. In order to evaluate his style of play. With Rulli playing, Villarreal have been the team to have their keeper the most short passes of all teams in the EL Group Stage, in line with their general focus on possession. Less than one fifth of Rulli's passes in open play have been long, and this is not down to him being unable to play them. His completion rate for long passes (more than 40 yards) is actually the highest of all goalkeepers in the Europa League.

His strengths with both feet are somehow balanced by some weaknesses as a shot-stopper. Analysing data from SmarterScout, we can see him having some deficits concerning the more classic facets of goalkeeping. Their model rates him below average in saving non-headed shots from both open play as well as set pieces and headers in open play. The only category in which he excels is stopping headers from dead balls from going in, so maybe Salzburg should not rely too much on set-pieces. But getting their strikers, especially Sekou Koita who is rated way above average in finishing non-headed shots in open play by their model, into decent shooting positions to challenge Rulli could be a promising strategy.

Salzburg: Could their defensive weakness cost them the title?

Although they finished the first part of the season in first place, they cannot be wholly satisfied with the way things are going. They lead the table only by goal difference and average only slightly more than two points per game, their lowest tally in recent years. Even last season, when they went into the Play-Offs technically six points behind their opponents LASK, they had a better point average, more goals scored and less goals conceded.

Their current problems are mainly down to defensive issues. They have conceded 15 goals in 12 league games, which is way more than their competitors Sturm (five goals conceded in the same period) and LASK (ten). From a historic perspective, their troubles become more evident: for the first time since the start of the 2016/17 season, they are averaging more than one goal conceded per game. This holds for both expected (1.15) and actual (1.25) goals.

We can see from this number that some of this is down to variation, given that they concede more goals than an average team would. But the difference of 0.1 per game amounts to only two goals in the course of the regular season, so not a huge factor to explain their worrying trends.

The issue was more pronounced in their international campaign. They finished third in the Champions League group and will therefore continue in the Europa League in February. Finishing in this position was however a bit more unfortunate than their current league standing. According to FBREF, they conceded 17 gaols from 8.7 expected ones. Their underlying performances had them as an only slightly below average (8.4 xG conceded) team, but their number of actual goals conceded was the second worst of the 32 teams in the group stage. Accordingly, no team had a higher percentage of xG that ended in goal (195%) or a bigger difference between expected (+2.7) and actual (-7) goal difference. They also had the best xG-difference in their group, topping reigning Champions League winners Bayern Munich (+2.4) and current La Liga leaders Atlético Madrid (+0.3).

Their domestic numbers this year leave them however only in 14th position in terms of expected goals per game conceded, out of a total of 56 club seasons in the league since 2016. They find themselves behind teams like Altach 2016/17 and LASK 2017/18, which both finished fourth. Another indicator of their relative weakness is that four of the six best teams in this ranking were previous versions of their own club.

 

The only conclusion from these numbers is that they have to improve defensively if they are to win the league yet again. But preparation during the winter break (which normally lasts around two months in Austria) was shortened to two weeks this year due to the full calendar, so the question remains if they were able to work a lot on the issue. They also did not do very much on the transfer market to alleviate their problems, bringing back in only defensive all-rounder Bernardo on loan from Brighton. At the same time, central defender Jérôme Onguéné left the club also on loan towards Genoa CFC.

So we can expect that their defensive numbers won't change much in the near future, which makes their offensive output the more important. The graph shows the expected number of points per game for different levels of expected goals per game scored, maintaining their current number of xG per game conceded at the fixed level. The vertical dotted lines show the actual levels of xG scored for the current and last two previous seasons.

If they keep scoring the same way, they are expected to finish the season with around 2.25 points per game, which in turn would be approximately 47 points after the end of the Play-Offs (note that points after the regular season are halved). This would be less than 2018/19 (52) and 2020/21 (50), but would in both years still have been enough to win the title.

The problem with these metrics is that until now, there are two teams in the league with also outstanding numbers, nearly reaching Salzburg's performance levels. LASK and Rapid (both not playing international football anymore, which might be a slight advantage), will challenge them in the upcoming months. This was not the case at the same level in previous years. If Salzburg are to overcome this challenge, they will have improve their defensive work and decrease the chances they concede to a lower level.

LASK: How have they evolved under Thalhammer?

After a run of bad results and a decline of performances after restart, the club decided that the coach had to go. Although the rumours of Valerien Ismael being sacrified in order for the club board did not completely silence, the appointment of Dominik Thalhammer made sense in sporting terms. He had led the Austrian Women's national team to unprecedented heights, reaching the semifinals of the 2017 Euros. Given that the squad was predominantely kept together, he was able to build and develop it further.

By looking at some stylistic metrics, we can compare the type of football the new head coach (who at the same time is also the sporting director) has implemented with the previous regime. I use the popular radar graphs for this purpose, which report twelve different indicators. These are broadly grouped into three subcategories: 

With the ball:

• Possession
• Pass success
• High possession (passes in the final third)
• Long balls (as a percentage of all passes played)
• Crosses (per 100 passes played)

Against the ball and transition

• Pressing frequency (number of interceptions and clearances per game)
• Pressing intensity (interceptions and clearances per minute out of possession)
• Opponent pass success
  
• Transition speed (number of passes played per shot)

Performances

• Total Shot Ratio (TSR)
  
• Shot on Target Ratio (STR)
• xG-Difference

 

Comparing last year's and current season's radar, we can actually see some remarkable differences, especially concerning they game with the ball. Average possession went up from 56% to 61% and their pass success rate from 69% to 75%. The number of passes in the opponent third is basically unchanged, indicating that they keep the ball a bit more in deeper positions. This is further underlined by the percentage of long balls, which fell from 19% under Ismael to 14% under Thalhammer. Conversely, they play more crosses: from five crosses per 100 passes last year to six during the current season. 

Their approach towards the opposition goal is also a little less direct; meanwhile they played on average 3.6 passes before each shot in 2019/20, now they shoot after 3.7. Not a huge difference, but still in line with a slightly more patient game.

Concerning their game without the ball, we observe a little paradox. They are pressing less, both in absolute and in proportional terms, but still they are able to interrupt their opponents' play: meanwhile last year 39% of their opponents' passes were unsuccessful, this year they are intercepting 41%. Closing passing lanes and forcing their opponents into bad decision instead of a more direct approach in pressing seems to be the new lemma.

In terms of performances, their game has improved even more from an already high level. They are scoring one expected goal per game more than they concede. A healthy figure, although they are beaten in this regard by champions RB Salzburg and maybe title-challengers SK Rapid.

Can they themselves challenge for the title win? Their numbers are, in spite of the changes in style, largely at the same level as they were last year during the regular season, which they finished in first position, leading by six points. If it had not been for their training scandal and the subsequent point deduction, they could have at least finished better than they ultimately did (in fourth place). Their challenge will therefore be to not experience a similar drop in performances after another excellent regular season and to maintain their level in the Play-Offs.

Rapid: Can they challenge for the title this year?

Their last league title dates back to 2008. Since then, they have finished in second position six times, three times in third position and thrice outside the top four. The hunger for the league title is big at Rapid and the chances they can win it this time are definitely not lost, although they finished the calender year in fourth position. They sit only one point behind the league leaders and their underlying numbers are quite promising.

On the attacking side of their game, they have created 2.23 xG per game so far this season, their best output since the beginning of the 2016/17 season (they have created more in the 2018/19 lower Play-Offs, but faced significantly worse opponents therein). In comparison to last year's regular season, they have created around 0.3 xG per game more, which adds up to around seven goals over the course of 22 games.

Defensively, they are also quite stable and allowed their opponents slightly more than one expected goal per game, which is around at the the level of the 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons, in which they had their best defensive record during the last few years. In terms of league-wide comparison, they are the second-best team in the league in both disciplines, bettered offensively only by RB Salzburg (2.36 xG created per game) and LASK (1.01 xG conceded).

Although expected goals do not tell us the whole story, they are an important indicator of a team's performance level. Therefore, the numbers tend to correlate quite strongly with teams' final league position. By comparing their numbers this year with those of other high-quality teams of late, we can evaluate their chances to challenge for the title in the current season. The graph shows the top 10 teams since the 2016/17 season (out of a total of 56), ranked by their average xG-difference, and their rank in the final league table.

We can see that the team of headcoach Kühbauer are beaten only by two versions of RB Salzburg, both this and the previous year. Their offensive output is likewise the third-highest of all teams, although there have been some more defensively sound teams. We can therefore conclude that they are definitely in the title race.

Their problem is that not only this year's version of RB Salzburg is in this list, but also two other direct rivals, LASK and Sturm Graz (albeit the latter already quite some levels behind). This is a wider reflection of a general trend this season. The total number of expected goals has risen by about 0.25 per game in comparison to last season. We also observe the highest xG values per game (3.15) since 2016. Post-pandemic football has turned into a chance festival, which is why most teams create more expected goals than last year.

Therefore, the question whether Rapid's better numbers are down to an actual improvement or rather due to a more general trend, remains open. But, given their stats in comparison to the rest of the league, they could finish this season with the best rank since 2008.

Sturm: Is Ilzer their best head coach of the last years?

Half a year after finishing last season on a historic low, losing nine out of ten games in the upper Play-Off and conceding more than three goals a game on the run, Sturm Graz are back in business. They go top of the table if they win the game against WAC that they have in hand. So far, they are the only team to lose only one game this season and are the most stable side with only five goals conceded in eleven matches (the second-best side is on ten goals conceded). Their goal difference is the second best of the league after champions RB Salzburg.

Although their underlying numbers indicate that they are overperforming quite heavily (+17 actual goal difference from a +8.4 expected one), their rise is quite remarkable. Last season, their underlying numbers were those of a team from the lower half of the table, incapable of competing for higher laureates. Now they have the fourth best xG difference and clearly belong in the upper third of the table. They did this despite not spending a penny on new signings, relying on free agents and loan moves. 

This passive approach leaves only their new head coach as a possible explanation for their improvement. Christian Ilzer was appointed after Nestor El Maestro was sacked for both on and off-field reasons and interim coach Thomas Hösele managed to lose all three games in charge (5:12 goal difference). Ilzer himself had had a quite underwhelming season at Austria Vienna, which ended with the loss of the Europa Qualification Play-Offs after winning the lower Play-Offs. But in general terms, he was still highly regarded after getting Hartberg promoted to the highest league for the first time in their history and leading WAC to European honours the two previous years.

After frequent changes in this position (he is their fifth permanent head coach since the start of the 2016/17 season), Sturm seem to have found their man. Out of this group of five coaches, he has the highest point and goals scored average, plus his team is by long way the most stable one (less than half a goal per game conceded). Although these numbers should regress somewhat to their mean, underlying performances have been no less impressive given last year's benchmark.

He is also the coach with the highest expected goal difference per game. His team scores more than half an expected goal per game more than those of Heiko Vogel (who got sacked midway the 2018/19 season) and Franco Foda (who lead them to the top of the table at Christmas 2017 before being appointed manager of the Austrian national team). The men in charge after Vogel's sacking (Roman Mählich and Nestor El Maestro) were both known for a rather reactive style of play and did not manage to reach the levels of their predecessors (both had a negative expected goal difference).

Interestingly and contrary to the actual numbers, the team's improvement under Ilzer is largely down to their increased offensive production. They score almost two expected non-penalty goals per game, which is largely in line with their actual output (exactly two goals per game). On the defensive side, his team is only the third best of the sample with around 1.15 xG per game conceded. Under both Foda and Vogel, the club allowed their opponents slightly less (1.08 xG per game). 

 

Given the actual numbers this season are way below that (0.45 goals conceded on average) and are based on a still relatively small sample of only eleven games, the team might fall back a bit and may be short of battling for the title this year. But they have improved massively under their new head coach and should make it into Europe easily.

WSG Tirol: How have they improved so much?

In the end, it was deserved. WSG Tirol finished the league in last position, with most goals conceded and the worst goal difference. They won only one game out of ten in the lower Play-Offs, conceding sixteen goals on the way (worst) and scoring only eight (second worst). Their relegation after just one season in the highest tier was no coincidence.

But sometimes in life, people get a second chance. In their case, it was a rival team going into bankruptcy, which gave them a spot in the higher tier for the current season. Despite a lot of issues planning the new season and putting together a squad for the highest league, they so far have used their chance really well. They sit comfortably in fifth position, with a positive goal difference and massively improved numbers on both ends of the pitch.

 

Offensively, they improved above else in home games. It has to be mentioned that due to infrastructural reasons, they have not played at their usual home stadium since promotion. This year, they seem to cope much better with this peculiar loss of home-ground advantage. In lesser terms, they also create more from counter attacks and set pieces, plus they rely less on long balls. The situations in which they have made the most important steps forward are footed shots and shots after through balls; both very effective ways to score goals. This is a side that is not riding the wave but a well playing squad.

In defensive terms and unlike at the other end of the pitch, they have diminished their opponents' chances to score in away games. They are a bit more stable in counter situations, from set pieces and after opponents' long balls. Their rivals are also less able to create footed shots against them. Again, very promising developments of a team which might likely play in the upper Play-Offs this year.

WAC: Are they suffering a European hangover?

After finishing last season in third position, which included a secure spot in the Europa League group stage, Wolfsberger AC suffered a bit of a slow start to the new season. They lost four out of five at the beginning of the term and spent most of this fall below the magic line, i.e. in the lower half of the table. During the last couple they seem however to have turned their fortunes; they only lost one league game since the start of November, winning five out of seven (including an away game against the ruling champion). Similarly, the expected goals table tells a story of a team that will most likely finish in the upper half of the table (they have played one game less, which is why they could jump to fifth already next week). The prospects of competing for international honours again are there.

 

Next month, they also have another European challenge. They play Tottenham in the round of last sixteen, an encounter that they most likely will not win. Moreover, the question is whether this tie will further affect their domestic performances. Given that they already had a small squad last season, the additional workload might do them more damage than they wished for. The question is therefore if the (most likely) two games will affect their domestic performances this spring season.

 

To answer the question, I divided the eleven games they have played so far this season into two sub-groups: European games (red in the graph) are those within three to four days after a Europa League fixture. Free Weeks (blue bars) on the other hand are games in which they had had no midweek games (domestic cup games have been played on weekends this season so far). The sample size is quite small (five European games and six Free Weeks) and I did not control for quality of opposition (which might affect the data disproportionately). Results are therefore to be taken with a pinch of salt and will give us only a general idea but given that additional workload is commonly used as a reason or excuse for poor domestic performances, there should be at least something to it.

 

The data shows that there are actually small differences in their performances, but not the way you would expect. Their points per game tally is basically unchanged, whether they have played European or not. They both won and lost two of their games after midweek fixtures, but they proportion of wins and losses is also the same after free weeks (three to three). 

 

In terms of underlying performances, they tended to play better after European nights, scoring around 0.33 xG (one goal every three games) more and conceding 0.4 less than when they could use the whole week for preparing their game. In those more challenging weeks, they created more footed shots and more from through balls, two more effective ways to score goals. Meanwhile, after long training weeks they were significantly better during set-pieces and counters.

The thing with European games with them so far has been that they struggled on both ends of the pitch to get the goals they deserved. This led them to having an actual (non-penalty) goal difference of 0, while creating a positive expected one (+.22). Heavy legs seem to influence their ability to convert their own chances and prevent the opposition from scoring theirs. On the other hand, they massively overperform in free weeks, converting an expected goal difference of -.42 (a rather poor number) into an actual one of +.16. 

 

Of course, additional games sum up and do not only influence the games in the immediate aftermath. Preparing for more game time by strengthening and broadening their squad is not a bad idea. Their results have however been ok after playing in Europe, with the only outlier being their heaviest defeat so far this season (1:4 at Wattens) after their trip to Moscow. So, rather than fearing the negative impact of European football in the future, they should worry about rather mediocre performances when they don't play in UEFA competitions.

St. Pölten: Are they a real deal?

Although they slipped out of the top six because of a 3:0 defeat against Sturm Graz in the last game before the winter break and in spite of only winning one of their last six matches (losing 8:2 against Salzburg on the way), St. Pölten are still a candidate for the upper play-offs. They spent the best part of the current season so far in the upper half of the table and are also the seventh-best team in the league in terms of xG-difference, so the chances to reach one of the first six spots still exist. This season is a massive upgrade compared to last one, where they finished the regular season as last. They are now only one win away of bettering their total points tally of last year's regular season. Last year, they were the second-worst team in the xG-difference table during the first 22 matchdays and the worst team of the lower Play-Offs.

How have they managed to improve and compete for a spot in the upper final round? Their upward trend is mostly down to higher attacking output. Last season, they created the fewest expected goals in both the regular season and the lower Play-Offs. They are now the sixth best shooting team of the league, only around one expected goal behind WSG Wattens in fifth place. Defensively, there are more worrying signs. With almost 23 expected goals conceded in twelve games, they are in the lower third of league teams in this category.

They have been maximising quality over quantity. As the plot shows, they are taking the best shots on average of all the teams in the league, with a total shot number of a relegation threatened team (third lowest of the league). Their average shot has in turn a probability to go in of more than 14%, way above the second-best team in this list (SV Ried, 12.6%) and almost 2.5 percentage points better than league average (11.6%). In defensive terms, they are not quite as good in this sense, conceding shots that are only slightly worse (11.4%) than the average team.

Their improvement in offensive terms can largely be attributed to better shot locations. They take more than 71% of their shots from inside the box, the largest share of the league, almost completely renouncing long-way shots. This strategy not only increases the chances of the single shot to go in the net, it also has the advantage of giving the opposition less opportunities to exploit possession changes that are the result of balls saved or blocked because they were taken from poor positions.

In terms of game situations, they create the highest amount of expected goals from counter situations. Bearing in mind that shots from counter situations are also more likely to go in than comparable shots from non-counters, this seems like a legit strategy to create attacking danger. They are rather poor from set-pieces (8th best team) and from long balls (11th), which could both be powerful circumstances for outsiders like them. On the other hand, they are the second-best team of the league for xG created from through-balls (after Wolfsberg and unlike another team of their region), which are another excellent way to create high-quality shots.

If they manage to become a bit more solid defensively and keep on exploiting successful offensive strategies, there chances to reach the upper Play-Off (which would mean no danger of relegation and the chance to compete for European games) are not to be neglected.

Hartberg: Are they defying common wisdom?

After narrowly surviving in their first year and making it for the first time in their history to a European competition in the second one, TSV Hartberg are back to pushing above their weight this season. They sit comfortably in mid-table (currently 8th), with less points distance to the upper Play-Offs than to the relegation zone. Head coach Markus Schopp has been doing a decent job since taking over in 2018 and doesn't seem to stop.

Their underlying numbers do however tell a slightly different story. They are actually the second-worst team of the league xG-wise. The strange thing about their season is that they do not actually overperform their xG-difference. They are on -.75 actual goal difference per game from -0.65 non-penalty expected goals. 

So what causes their overperformance in terms of points? One reason might be penalties, which are usually excluded due to not being a really repetitive skill. It is however not the reason for their good points tally. So far, they had one for them (in a game they draw 1:1) and one against (in a 7:1 defeat), hence penalties explain one single point in the table.

The answer lies more in the way they score goals under specific circumstances. They obviously score (expected and actual) goals of higher value than an average team. The graph shows the relationship between xG-difference and points per game since the start of the 2016/17 season at team level. Points are coloured according to tier (regular season or Play-Offs), they grey area is the 95% confidence interval. We can see that points are largely a function of xG-difference. There are some outliers, out of which many will be down to luck or random variation.

As we have seen, this is not the case for Hartberg (blue dots in the diagram). They perform about as well as you would expect them given their underlying performances. However, they seem to have found to way to beat these expectations by keeping games tight, with rather few goals both scored and conceded. That is when they excel. Around 60% of their games since their promotion in 2018/19 were tight games, i.e. games in which both teams either scored the same amount of goals or one team exactly one more than the opponent. They won half of their points in those games, a far higher percentage than other teams with a similar amount of tight games.

Their special strength in comparison to their direct rivals are games in which exactly one goal is scored. They win 1.36 points on average in those games, considerably more than comparable teams such as Admira (1.0), Altach (0.67) and WSG Tirol (0.6). Only St. Pölten nearly reach this same level (1.33).

When goals galore, they are however doomed. They have lost seven games in the two and a half season in which their opponent scored at least five goals, while they themselves have yet to score that many goals in a single game in the upper league.

 

Ried: how do they compare to other recently promoted teams?

In spite of sitting relatively comfortably in tenth position (out of twelve teams), with three points separating them from the sole relegation spot and five between them and the upper play-offs, SV Ried decided to sack their head coach Gerald Baumgartner after one half of the regular season. Although there was no immediate relegation threat, there were some reasons to be concerned, given that they had the second-worst defense in the league and had just previously lost a home game 1:4 to a not very great contender. 

But how evaluate their situation? They still sit tenth in the expected goal difference table, although things are very congested between the teams in spots eight and eleven, so a lot of things can still happen. It might make more sense to compare their performances to other teams in their maiden season after promotion. I included only those of the 2018/19 season onwards, given that the current league format was introduced this very year.

 

This leaves us with three other teams as benchmark: Hartberg, Wacker Innsbruck (both promoted for the 2018/19 season) and WSG Tirol (debuting in 2019/20). Innsbruck and WSG finished their first season in last position, although the latter did not have to go down due to another team being administrated. This shows how hard survival in the first league in Austria has become, reflecting the growing gap between the divisions. Unlike in earlier times, promoted teams do not tend to compete for European spots, but rather struggle to stay up.

The simple comparison shows that Ried is in general the worst of the four teams. They are conceding almost 0.6 expected goals per game more than they create, way less than their counterparts. The issue is not so much their offensive side: they score 1.29 xG per game, which is in line (Hartberg 1.27, WSG Tirol 1.37, Wacker Innsbruck 1.32). Their problems lie predominately at the back, with almost two xG conceded per game, around 0.15 per game more than the second-worst team. 

 

Their defensive issues are backed up by actual goals numbers. They have conceded 2.3 goals per game so far, around 0.25 more than the second-worst team. These differences add up to a total of around six expected goals over the course of a full season, which is quite worrying given that none of the other teams finished high in the actual table.

 

One might argue that the comparison is a bit unfair due to the small sample size it is based on for the current season; hence it could be biased because of schedule effects. The fact is however that Ried's schedule has so far been rather easy. Of the five remaining home games, only two are against teams from the upper half of the table. On the other hand, they have to play three of the four best teams of the table away from home during the remainder of the regular season. Results will therefore not improve significantly.

There is however some strength in this team. They have created the best xG-difference from set-pieces (a total of 1.63) and perform quite well after long balls (second-best, with an xG-difference of 0.7). They could do better after counter attacks and through balls. 

This leads us to questions of style. Their style so far this season has been overtly reactive, with the lowest share of ball possession (~40%), pass percentage (69%) and of passes played short (77%) of the subsample. They also play the second lowest share of their passes in the opponent half (33%) and cross the ball second-most (around five crosses per 100 total passes). 

It is ok to start the season more cautiously and not try to dominate every game from the start. But in order to be competitive, some improvement is non-negotiable. As this blog entry has shown, the three areas where they need to work on the most are defensive stability, a more active style of play and their game in possession. They already have a new head coach. Miron Muslic coached second-tier side Floridsdorfer AC since summer. They had the second-worst defence of the league.