Challenging J. Hart

The task ahead for Wolfsberger AC is huge. They will face Tottenham, one of the best teams of the group stages in the round of 32. To make matters worse, their "home" game will be played in Budapest and their best player is falling out with his head coach, starting only one of the three games before the European clash.

Are there any chances for WAC in the clash? Well, not really. According to fbref.com, Tottenham have created the joint-most expected goals in the Europa League group stage (alongside fellow London club Arsenal) and were the fifth-best team in terms of xG conceded. Along the way, they outplayed WAC's domestic rivals LASK two times, although they only managed to turn that into one win and one draw. 

Compare that to the carinthians' numbers, and you see that there is not only a difference in terms of budget and squad quality, but also in performances. Only Dundalk and Qarabaq Agdam created less xG than them, both of which finished their respective group in last position. Both in terms of chances created and conceded (penalties excluded), WAC were actually the worst team in their group, making it a remarkable achievement to reach the round of last 32 teams.

The only true weakness (besides underestimating their opponents and arrogance, but you wouldn't rely on those) and therefore focal point could be Tottenham's usual starting keeper in European matches, Joe Hart. The former Manchester City player has started five of the six group stage games this season and conceded already around one goal more than an average keeper would given the shots he faced. One might argue that five games and three post-shot xG are too small a sample size to draw any conclusions, but in fact Hart also underperformed expectations at his previous clubs West Ham and Burnley, where he played more games.

Likewise, SmarterScout rates him below average in terms of shot stopping, both in the case of open play as well as set-pieces. When rated against the average goalkeeper in the Europa League, he features especially bad against headers (7 resp. 8 on a scale from 0 to 99). So, there is definitely a weakness to exploit. Both teams are at the same level in terms of aerial duels won, hence the way to go could be working the ball forward, crossing it into the box and trying to force Hart into saves which he does not perform at a high level. Given that Wolfsberg are the team with the second-highest amount of long balls played in the group stage, they should be able set up a direct and aerials-based match plan.

For this to happen, they will however have to shoot. They shot 8.5 times in the group stage games, coincidentally the same number Spurs conceded. Whether this will be enough remains to be seen.

A clash of styles

Salzburg's upcoming opponent Villarreal, having installed Unai Emery as their new head coach last summer, have since then changed their style towards a more passive and patient way of play. They have more of the ball and pass it more than last season, but they are shooting almost three times per game less than in the previous year. Their gain in possession serves more as a defensive tool, in that they are keeping the ball to prevent their opponents from creating chances. According to numbers by fbref.com, they have been able to reduce the number of shots conceded per game from around 12 to nine. This improvement is reflected in their underlying numbers. Meanwhile their expected goals per game in league games fell only slightly from 1.5 to 1.44, they reduced their xG conceded from 1.17 to 0.87. This amounts on average to a goal every three games, or around twelve goals conceded less over the course of a season.

Their change in approach has also affected their pressing games. While they were the seventh-most active team in pressing opponents last season in La Liga, they fell to the eleventh position in this regard in the current year. Although they do try to win the ball back a little more in higher areas of the pitch, in the first and second third of the pitch they put their opponents under much less pressure when out of possession than last year.

In the Europa League, they are even the least active team out of possession out of all teams which made it into the group stages. They pressured their opponents only 106 times per game, almost one hundred occasions less per game than the most active team in this regard (Salzburg's Austrian fellows Wolfsberger AC). One might argue that high levels of pressure are not paramount to their style of play given their high levels of possession, but the relationship between much possession and little pressing is not straightforward. Leverkusen for instance, who enjoyed one percentage point more possession than Villarreal, were the fifth-most pressing team in the group stage.

Their more passive approach might rather be a conscious choice, given the congested fixture list this season with less room to recover between games. It did however not affect their performances negatively; they created the fifth-most expected goals and where even the most defensively sound teams of the 48 in the group stage, allowing their opponents only 0.46 xG per game (all data for non-penalty shots).

Salzburg, on the other hand, couldn't play more differently. Their high-risk, high-reward style of play when having the ball causes them to have less possession than their opponents in this year's CL group stage and to be among the teams with the lowest pass success rate (only three of 32 teams completed less of their passes). After winning the ball back, they try to get it forwards as quickly as possible, not paying too much attention to possession and pass success figures.

Yet against the ball, they are among the most active teams. They disrupt their opponents' passes at the third-best rate of all teams in the group stage, behind only Ajax and Bayern. When their opponent has the ball, they are the second-most active team, tackling and pressing like wild all over the pitch. Only their partner club RB Leipzig has worked even more actively against the ball during the six games of the group stage. Although they left the competition, finishing third in their group which also included Bayern and Atlético, their style was equally successful; they created the third-most non-penalty expected goals of all teams and were an average team defensively (1.19 xG conceded per game). With luck a little more on their side, they could have easily made it to the round of last 16.

So, Thursday's encounter will likely be a clash of football styles, with Villarreal trying to keep the ball, move it around patiently and attack without taking to many risks. Salzburg will play their part, hunt the ball on every opportunity and look for the most direct way to goal after winning it back. The game will most likely be won by the team which is better in focusing on what they can and less on what the opponent wants them to.

One detail which could be decisive is the role of the goalkeepers. Salzburg will field Cican Stankovic, who is at least now not questioned by the club. Villarreal have played all international games so far with Geronimo Rulli instead of regular starter Sergio Asenjo. In order to evaluate his style of play. With Rulli playing, Villarreal have been the team to have their keeper the most short passes of all teams in the EL Group Stage, in line with their general focus on possession. Less than one fifth of Rulli's passes in open play have been long, and this is not down to him being unable to play them. His completion rate for long passes (more than 40 yards) is actually the highest of all goalkeepers in the Europa League.

His strengths with both feet are somehow balanced by some weaknesses as a shot-stopper. Analysing data from SmarterScout, we can see him having some deficits concerning the more classic facets of goalkeeping. Their model rates him below average in saving non-headed shots from both open play as well as set pieces and headers in open play. The only category in which he excels is stopping headers from dead balls from going in, so maybe Salzburg should not rely too much on set-pieces. But getting their strikers, especially Sekou Koita who is rated way above average in finishing non-headed shots in open play by their model, into decent shooting positions to challenge Rulli could be a promising strategy.