Austria: how do they try to score goals?

Seventh, fourth, seventh, and now tenth. After finishing second (and losing more than one third of their games on the way) in 2016/17, Austria Vienna are in what you may describe as a permanent crisis. They are definitely performing below expectations, given that they are the last club to win the league not named Red Bull Salzburg and also the record champion since the competition was installed in its current format in the 1970s.

The club, formerly known for technical and offensive football, is struggling especially at the high end of the pitch. During the current season, they have scored only one goal per game, down from 1.5 during last year's regular season and on par with the worst team of the league. Their last win (and only second in total) dates back to early October. This happens in spite of reinstalling their messiah, Peter Stöger, the last one who coached them to champions honours, as head coach this summer.

The difficulty is that their performances are just that. Although they can argue that they have been a bit unlucky (only nine goals from 15 xG), there are only three teams in the league that created even less. They are playing like a below average team and deserve the position they occupy in the table.

The shot zones map underlines their weaknesses. They create less expected goals than an average team does from any area in the box and just outside of it. Their chance creation in the zone around the penalty spot is especially poor. This is not the map of a team that competes for European competitions or even more, but rather one that needs to make sure they don't finish in a lower league the following year.

The question is if there is at least anything positive about their offensive performances this year. A strength they could rely on to score more goals during the remainder of this season. By crunching the numbers concerning their expected goals and comparing them to the other teams of the league, we can detect any possible strengths.

Unfortunately, they are not leading the league in any category, and only in one they are among the top third of teams. They are below average both before (8th best team of the league) and after the break (10th). They are somehow better after crosses (7th) than after non-crosses (10th) as well as after set-pieces (6th) than from open play (9th), but nothing to be too optimistic about.

The only category in which they somehow excel is xG after long passes, in which they are the fourth best team by now. To put this into context, they also try it quite often the direct way, playing long balls both absolutely (955 times so far) as relatively (23% of their passes are long) the second-most frequently of all clubs. Plus, this kind of football might not be the one preferred by their supporters and is also not the best one suited to some of their more gifted players such as Grünwald, Fitz or Sakaria.

The most baffling fact, however, is that they are still to create a single shot from a through ball this season. Through balls are in general a very effective way to generate high quality chances, hence the team lacking this quality shows the poor season they are having. Only fellow relegation contenders Hartberg and Altach have also failed to create something from through balls this season.

The issue is as much personal as it is structural. Last season's most dangerous players are by and large also this season's, but in general most of them on a lower level. There are some promising youngsters such as Aleksandar Jukic (20) and Patrick Wimmer (19), but they still rely too much on some players beyond their peak (Grünwald, Klein last season, Suttner this year) in terms of chance creation.

Plus, one of their most exciting younger players has hardly featured this year. Dominik Fitz has played less than 200 minutes this season, missing many games due to injury and suspension. He was easily their most creative player last season, setting up 7.5 expected goals for his teammates. On the way, he created more than two expected goals from through balls last season (no other more than one), was their best assister for shots both from crosses and non-crosses, and also both from open play and after set-pieces.

He did additionally also create danger from his own shots, being their second most effective player from non-crossed shots and their third most from open play and after short passes. His tally of four goals and eight assists almost perfectly matches his underlying performances, indicating how much his team has been missing him this year.

Altach: are they declining?

When Alex Pastoor took over at Altach in March of 2019, things didn't look very bright for the team from Vorarlberg. They languished in penultimate position of the table and were in acute danger. Wacker Innsbruck, who were relegated in the end, were only one point behind them. The dutchman's take of control meant an immediate improvement of form. He took them to the second position of the lower tier of the play-offs, eight points ahead of the relegation spot. During the play-offs, the team managed to gather one more point (18) in ten games than in the 22 matches of the regular season, albeit against in general weaker opposition. In the following 2019/20 season, the team stabilized on a higher level, gaining six points more during the regular season than the year before. Then, football was stopped for some months, and after the restart the team was not the same as before. Although they did finish second again in the lower play-offs, they did so by collecting five points (i.e. half a point every game) less than the year before. They also scored almost 50% less goals, although they also improved defensively a bit. 

This year, their downward trend seems to continue. They are again in penultimate position, only one point ahead of the worst team of the league (sounds familiar?). Never in the last few years have they collected fewer points per game than this season (a mere 0.66). Their goal difference is the second worst in the league and no team has scored fewer. This leads to the question whether this trend is down to some more or less random fluctuation (as can happen in a short time of only twelve games), or are there real problems? And can we say that the fact that they score fewer goals is down to some offensive problems?

A look at the long-term trend of their xG-numbers show that they do have a worse regular season than in previous years (the current format was installed in 2018). After having performed at quite similar levels during the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons before the split at around -0.41 xG-difference per game, they are now down to -0.6. This difference might not seem big, but it adds up to around four goals in the course of twenty games. 

The graph shows the evolution of the total xG-difference since the start of the 2018/19 season (thick black line) and the mean difference for each sub-season (thinner blue line). Given that it is a cumulative sum, it is not very surprising to see some variability at the beginning, with the tendency stabilising after around ten games. We can see that there was an uplift after Pastoor took over, when the team reached their highest average xG-difference (0.42). 

The trend was however not sustainable, and the performances returned to the level of the 2018/19 regular season. Things did not get much better in the 2019/20 play-offs (after lockdown), when they performed around half as good as the year before. The downward trend carried on into the current season, as exposed above.

Their difficulties are still not so much down to problems in attack. In fact, they are creating more this year (1.23 xG per game) than in the two previous. The problem is that this offensive improvement is more than cancelled by some defensive struggles. They almost concede two xG per game (1.83), which may be less than their actual goal tally against but is so high that naturally more variation occurs.

Although they are clearly not the main relegation candidate this season, there are some worrying signs concerning results and performances. They need to improve defensively if they are to get back to where they have already been in past seasons.

Admira: How bad are their performances really?

Last in the real table, and also trailing in the expected goals ranking, with the worst defence (almost 25 xG conceded) and offence (only under ten xG created) of the league: the 2020/21 season of FC Admira Wacker Mödling can be described as suboptimal, at least. They are only one point behind their closest rival (Altach), but underlying performances are abysmal. Their expected goal difference of -1.25 almost doubles that of the second worst team (Hartberg) and is also way lower than their performances in recent years (between -0.31 and -0.61 since 2016/17). But how bad are they really in a historic comparison?

Going back in time (until the start of the 2016/17 season), we struggle to find comparable teams. The current Admira squad is by any means the worst team in this period. The second worst team (Wolfsberg during 2016/17) managed to survive with an xG-difference of almost -25 in 36 games. 

The comparison might be unfair, however. Given that there were only twelve games played this season, sample size issues and schedule effects might influence this seasons' data more than those of past, complete seasons. I try therefore to make a more just comparison. From the four seasons before the current one, I randomly draw 10.000 subsamples (12 games) of individual teams and compare their respective xG-difference to the numbers of this year's Admira. By sampling randomly and repeating this quite a few times (like 10.000), we are able to eliminate with high confidentiality singular effects that might influence the current season's data. The comparison is then more grounded.

The graph shows the distribution of the xG-differences of the simulation, plus a curve that indicates a normal distribution. The line shows that results are skewed, indication that some teams (usually Red Bull Salzburg) perform on an extraordinary level, causing a longer tail on the right side of the graph. However, this should us not bother us in this case.

The results of the simulation confirm that Admira's performances this season are really bad. Out of the 10.000 simulations, only 18 (way below one percent) where worse than the team so far. Interestingly, eleven of those where Hartberg last season, obviously a rather bad season xG wise. Admira themselves feature twice (both during the 2018/19 season, their worst one before the current) in this list.

Does this mean that they are doomed? Well, not necessarily. There is still a lot to play for (ten games before the league is split into two groups of six teams each, who will face each other twice). The point difference is slim (only one) and will be further reduced even if they remain in last position, given that points are halfed after the regular season. Furthermore, the results of the simulation itself give a glimmer of hope. Of the 18 worse cases, only two (FC Wacker Innsbruck 2018/19 and St. Pölten 2017/18) were from teams that ended their season in last position (St. Pölten were not relegated due to a change of the league structure). Teams can and do overperform, but there is also a lot of room for improvement for Admira after the winter break.

Do supporters in the grounds affect results? Some evidence from Austria.

Remember when we (myself included) declared the end of home-ground advantage after football restarted? Well, not so fast. At least in the Austrian Bundesliga, things are pretty much back to normal, although we are back to closed gates after some games with fans in September and October.

We can see that away teams were actually slightly more successful even before the pandemic halted football for almost three months. They obtained around 0.1 points per game more than home teams in the 22 games before lockdown. This difference skyrocketed after restart to almost 0.5, which is generally why home-ground advantage was supposed to be at least severely damaged. Things have however changed since the start of the current season. Home teams obtain around one point more every five games than their opponents. Roughly the same is true for the number of goals scored. 

 

Interestingly, the pattern is almost identical for home and away teams if we look only at goals scored in the first half: a massive drop after restart and comparable levels in the 2020-21 games to the ones with full attendance. This also means that away teams completely outperformed home teams after the break in the ten matchdays between restart and the end of the season. Whether this is due to the absence of supporters and psychological effects thereof or just some random variation is unclear. 

Underlying statistics show a similar, although less contrastive picture. Home teams suffered a significant drop of performance levels after football restarted, both in terms of shots and expected goals. Games were almost completely level between home and away teams; hence the absence of home-ground advantage can be confirmed for this period. Interestingly, also away teams suffered a drop in expected goals after restart yet is was much smaller than the one for home teams.

 

 Since the start of the current season, things are however back to comparable levels to before the pandemic. Both home and away teams actually create around 0.1 xG per game more than before football was halted, hence the difference between them is basically the same. The question why all teams create more or better chances now than at the same time last year would be an interesting question for a separate thread or blog entry. In line with what we saw when looking at actual goals scored, analyzing expected goals shows that away teams massively outperformed their opponents especially after half-time.

One decisive point why away teams performed substantially better after restart was discipline. Referees seemed to punish them much less than before Covid, both in absolute terms as well as in comparison to home teams.

This pattern was somehow reversed after the start of the 2020/21 season. Not so much in terms of penalties, where away games are still treated preferably, although the difference between home and away teams is at the moment minimal. They still get around one penalty more every eight games, this difference was around three times higher in the final games of last season. Both get more penalties now than last season; the pressure on referees to award penalties is at least in this case negatively proportional to the number of fans in the stands.

 

Likewise, the conversion rate of penalties is much higher this season than last and also way above the long-term average of around 0.8. More than nine in ten penalties are converted this season, and the difference between home and away teams is again small. As in the case of penalties awarded, home teams suffered greatly after restart and are now at higher levels than they were before the pandemic.

Other disciplinary topics show more diverse patterns. Offside calls have been on the rise ever since, something I would not directly link to the number of spectators in stadia. These are (despite some confusing VAR cases) obviously more objective, binary decisions than fouls, cards or penalties.

 

Fouls and personal punishments were in my opinion the main drivers of away teams’ improved results after lockdown. In all three categories (fouls, yellow cards, send-offs), home teams were treated worse than their opponents in the ten rounds after football restarted, unlike before Covid. This pattern was reversed but for players sent off (both straight reds and second yellows), where they are still worse off. In all cases, the difference is however smaller than it was when fans where still allowed without restrictions, which would indicate that having full grounds does influence refereeing decisions.

So, do supporters influence results? To answer this question, the current scenario offers us nearly a natural experiment. Until matchday 22 of the past season, they were allowed without restrictions. After that, games where played completely behind closed doors until the end of the season. Then in summer, there was an initial limit of up to 10.000 visitors, which was in place however only for matchday 1 due to growing infection numbers. This limit was subsequently lowered to 3.000 and then 1.500, before the league had to return to closed gates. Under each scenario we had a couple of games played, although with a limited sample size, so conclusions should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

We can see that point average for home and away teams was relatively stable before a few games before football was stopped, with away teams overperforming their counterparts during a long time early in the season. They then started to perform worse, but immediately rose again to levels unseen before after restart and maintained this level for the rest of the season. With the return of fans, their performance levels dropped again and reached a low point a few games in the 3.000 supporters period. They then started to rise again and have reached parity with home teams lately, as one would suspect if we are to suppose that the presence of fans influences results for the teams they support. Evidence is not really robust, but we can definitely show that away teams performed better with lower attendance figures or no fans at all in the stadia.