Last in the real table, and also trailing in the expected goals ranking, with the worst defence (almost 25 xG conceded) and offence (only under ten xG created) of the league: the 2020/21 season of FC Admira Wacker Mödling can be described as suboptimal, at least. They are only one point behind their closest rival (Altach), but underlying performances are abysmal. Their expected goal difference of -1.25 almost doubles that of the second worst team (Hartberg) and is also way lower than their performances in recent years (between -0.31 and -0.61 since 2016/17). But how bad are they really in a historic comparison?
Going back in time (until the start of the 2016/17 season), we struggle to find comparable teams. The current Admira squad is by any means the worst team in this period. The second worst team (Wolfsberg during 2016/17) managed to survive with an xG-difference of almost -25 in 36 games.
The comparison might be unfair, however. Given that there were only twelve games played this season, sample size issues and schedule effects might influence this seasons' data more than those of past, complete seasons. I try therefore to make a more just comparison. From the four seasons before the current one, I randomly draw 10.000 subsamples (12 games) of individual teams and compare their respective xG-difference to the numbers of this year's Admira. By sampling randomly and repeating this quite a few times (like 10.000), we are able to eliminate with high confidentiality singular effects that might influence the current season's data. The comparison is then more grounded.
The graph shows the distribution of the xG-differences of the simulation, plus a curve that indicates a normal distribution. The line shows that results are skewed, indication that some teams (usually Red Bull Salzburg) perform on an extraordinary level, causing a longer tail on the right side of the graph. However, this should us not bother us in this case.
The results of the simulation confirm that Admira's performances this season are really bad. Out of the 10.000 simulations, only 18 (way below one percent) where worse than the team so far. Interestingly, eleven of those where Hartberg last season, obviously a rather bad season xG wise. Admira themselves feature twice (both during the 2018/19 season, their worst one before the current) in this list.
Does this mean that they are doomed? Well, not necessarily. There is still a lot to play for (ten games before the league is split into two groups of six teams each, who will face each other twice). The point difference is slim (only one) and will be further reduced even if they remain in last position, given that points are halfed after the regular season. Furthermore, the results of the simulation itself give a glimmer of hope. Of the 18 worse cases, only two (FC Wacker Innsbruck 2018/19 and St. Pölten 2017/18) were from teams that ended their season in last position (St. Pölten were not relegated due to a change of the league structure). Teams can and do overperform, but there is also a lot of room for improvement for Admira after the winter break.
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