Challenging J. Hart

The task ahead for Wolfsberger AC is huge. They will face Tottenham, one of the best teams of the group stages in the round of 32. To make matters worse, their "home" game will be played in Budapest and their best player is falling out with his head coach, starting only one of the three games before the European clash.

Are there any chances for WAC in the clash? Well, not really. According to fbref.com, Tottenham have created the joint-most expected goals in the Europa League group stage (alongside fellow London club Arsenal) and were the fifth-best team in terms of xG conceded. Along the way, they outplayed WAC's domestic rivals LASK two times, although they only managed to turn that into one win and one draw. 

Compare that to the carinthians' numbers, and you see that there is not only a difference in terms of budget and squad quality, but also in performances. Only Dundalk and Qarabaq Agdam created less xG than them, both of which finished their respective group in last position. Both in terms of chances created and conceded (penalties excluded), WAC were actually the worst team in their group, making it a remarkable achievement to reach the round of last 32 teams.

The only true weakness (besides underestimating their opponents and arrogance, but you wouldn't rely on those) and therefore focal point could be Tottenham's usual starting keeper in European matches, Joe Hart. The former Manchester City player has started five of the six group stage games this season and conceded already around one goal more than an average keeper would given the shots he faced. One might argue that five games and three post-shot xG are too small a sample size to draw any conclusions, but in fact Hart also underperformed expectations at his previous clubs West Ham and Burnley, where he played more games.

Likewise, SmarterScout rates him below average in terms of shot stopping, both in the case of open play as well as set-pieces. When rated against the average goalkeeper in the Europa League, he features especially bad against headers (7 resp. 8 on a scale from 0 to 99). So, there is definitely a weakness to exploit. Both teams are at the same level in terms of aerial duels won, hence the way to go could be working the ball forward, crossing it into the box and trying to force Hart into saves which he does not perform at a high level. Given that Wolfsberg are the team with the second-highest amount of long balls played in the group stage, they should be able set up a direct and aerials-based match plan.

For this to happen, they will however have to shoot. They shot 8.5 times in the group stage games, coincidentally the same number Spurs conceded. Whether this will be enough remains to be seen.