Half a year after finishing last season on a historic low, losing nine out of ten games in the upper Play-Off and conceding more than three goals a game on the run, Sturm Graz are back in business. They go top of the table if they win the game against WAC that they have in hand. So far, they are the only team to lose only one game this season and are the most stable side with only five goals conceded in eleven matches (the second-best side is on ten goals conceded). Their goal difference is the second best of the league after champions RB Salzburg.
Although their underlying numbers indicate that they are overperforming quite heavily (+17 actual goal difference from a +8.4 expected one), their rise is quite remarkable. Last season, their underlying numbers were those of a team from the lower half of the table, incapable of competing for higher laureates. Now they have the fourth best xG difference and clearly belong in the upper third of the table. They did this despite not spending a penny on new signings, relying on free agents and loan moves.
This passive approach leaves only their new head coach as a possible explanation for their improvement. Christian Ilzer was appointed after Nestor El Maestro was sacked for both on and off-field reasons and interim coach Thomas Hösele managed to lose all three games in charge (5:12 goal difference). Ilzer himself had had a quite underwhelming season at Austria Vienna, which ended with the loss of the Europa Qualification Play-Offs after winning the lower Play-Offs. But in general terms, he was still highly regarded after getting Hartberg promoted to the highest league for the first time in their history and leading WAC to European honours the two previous years.
After frequent changes in this position (he is their fifth permanent head coach since the start of the 2016/17 season), Sturm seem to have found their man. Out of this group of five coaches, he has the highest point and goals scored average, plus his team is by long way the most stable one (less than half a goal per game conceded). Although these numbers should regress somewhat to their mean, underlying performances have been no less impressive given last year's benchmark.
He is also the coach with the highest expected goal difference per game. His team scores more than half an expected goal per game more than those of Heiko Vogel (who got sacked midway the 2018/19 season) and Franco Foda (who lead them to the top of the table at Christmas 2017 before being appointed manager of the Austrian national team). The men in charge after Vogel's sacking (Roman Mählich and Nestor El Maestro) were both known for a rather reactive style of play and did not manage to reach the levels of their predecessors (both had a negative expected goal difference).
Interestingly and contrary to the actual numbers, the team's improvement under Ilzer is largely down to their increased offensive production. They score almost two expected non-penalty goals per game, which is largely in line with their actual output (exactly two goals per game). On the defensive side, his team is only the third best of the sample with around 1.15 xG per game conceded. Under both Foda and Vogel, the club allowed their opponents slightly less (1.08 xG per game).
Given the actual numbers this season are way below that (0.45 goals conceded on average) and are based on a still relatively small sample of only eleven games, the team might fall back a bit and may be short of battling for the title this year. But they have improved massively under their new head coach and should make it into Europe easily.
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