Although they slipped out of the top six because of a 3:0 defeat against Sturm Graz in the last game before the winter break and in spite of only winning one of their last six matches (losing 8:2 against Salzburg on the way), St. Pölten are still a candidate for the upper play-offs. They spent the best part of the current season so far in the upper half of the table and are also the seventh-best team in the league in terms of xG-difference, so the chances to reach one of the first six spots still exist. This season is a massive upgrade compared to last one, where they finished the regular season as last. They are now only one win away of bettering their total points tally of last year's regular season. Last year, they were the second-worst team in the xG-difference table during the first 22 matchdays and the worst team of the lower Play-Offs.
How have they managed to improve and compete for a spot in the upper final round? Their upward trend is mostly down to higher attacking output. Last season, they created the fewest expected goals in both the regular season and the lower Play-Offs. They are now the sixth best shooting team of the league, only around one expected goal behind WSG Wattens in fifth place. Defensively, there are more worrying signs. With almost 23 expected goals conceded in twelve games, they are in the lower third of league teams in this category.
They have been maximising quality over quantity. As the plot shows, they are taking the best shots on average of all the teams in the league, with a total shot number of a relegation threatened team (third lowest of the league). Their average shot has in turn a probability to go in of more than 14%, way above the second-best team in this list (SV Ried, 12.6%) and almost 2.5 percentage points better than league average (11.6%). In defensive terms, they are not quite as good in this sense, conceding shots that are only slightly worse (11.4%) than the average team.
Their improvement in offensive terms can largely be attributed to better shot locations. They take more than 71% of their shots from inside the box, the largest share of the league, almost completely renouncing long-way shots. This strategy not only increases the chances of the single shot to go in the net, it also has the advantage of giving the opposition less opportunities to exploit possession changes that are the result of balls saved or blocked because they were taken from poor positions.
In terms of game situations, they create the highest amount of expected goals from counter situations. Bearing in mind that shots from counter situations are also more likely to go in than comparable shots from non-counters, this seems like a legit strategy to create attacking danger. They are rather poor from set-pieces (8th best team) and from long balls (11th), which could both be powerful circumstances for outsiders like them. On the other hand, they are the second-best team of the league for xG created from through-balls (after Wolfsberg and unlike another team of their region), which are another excellent way to create high-quality shots.
If they manage to become a bit more solid defensively and keep on exploiting successful offensive strategies, there chances to reach the upper Play-Off (which would mean no danger of relegation and the chance to compete for European games) are not to be neglected.
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