Ried: how do they compare to other recently promoted teams?

In spite of sitting relatively comfortably in tenth position (out of twelve teams), with three points separating them from the sole relegation spot and five between them and the upper play-offs, SV Ried decided to sack their head coach Gerald Baumgartner after one half of the regular season. Although there was no immediate relegation threat, there were some reasons to be concerned, given that they had the second-worst defense in the league and had just previously lost a home game 1:4 to a not very great contender. 

But how evaluate their situation? They still sit tenth in the expected goal difference table, although things are very congested between the teams in spots eight and eleven, so a lot of things can still happen. It might make more sense to compare their performances to other teams in their maiden season after promotion. I included only those of the 2018/19 season onwards, given that the current league format was introduced this very year.

 

This leaves us with three other teams as benchmark: Hartberg, Wacker Innsbruck (both promoted for the 2018/19 season) and WSG Tirol (debuting in 2019/20). Innsbruck and WSG finished their first season in last position, although the latter did not have to go down due to another team being administrated. This shows how hard survival in the first league in Austria has become, reflecting the growing gap between the divisions. Unlike in earlier times, promoted teams do not tend to compete for European spots, but rather struggle to stay up.

The simple comparison shows that Ried is in general the worst of the four teams. They are conceding almost 0.6 expected goals per game more than they create, way less than their counterparts. The issue is not so much their offensive side: they score 1.29 xG per game, which is in line (Hartberg 1.27, WSG Tirol 1.37, Wacker Innsbruck 1.32). Their problems lie predominately at the back, with almost two xG conceded per game, around 0.15 per game more than the second-worst team. 

 

Their defensive issues are backed up by actual goals numbers. They have conceded 2.3 goals per game so far, around 0.25 more than the second-worst team. These differences add up to a total of around six expected goals over the course of a full season, which is quite worrying given that none of the other teams finished high in the actual table.

 

One might argue that the comparison is a bit unfair due to the small sample size it is based on for the current season; hence it could be biased because of schedule effects. The fact is however that Ried's schedule has so far been rather easy. Of the five remaining home games, only two are against teams from the upper half of the table. On the other hand, they have to play three of the four best teams of the table away from home during the remainder of the regular season. Results will therefore not improve significantly.

There is however some strength in this team. They have created the best xG-difference from set-pieces (a total of 1.63) and perform quite well after long balls (second-best, with an xG-difference of 0.7). They could do better after counter attacks and through balls. 

This leads us to questions of style. Their style so far this season has been overtly reactive, with the lowest share of ball possession (~40%), pass percentage (69%) and of passes played short (77%) of the subsample. They also play the second lowest share of their passes in the opponent half (33%) and cross the ball second-most (around five crosses per 100 total passes). 

It is ok to start the season more cautiously and not try to dominate every game from the start. But in order to be competitive, some improvement is non-negotiable. As this blog entry has shown, the three areas where they need to work on the most are defensive stability, a more active style of play and their game in possession. They already have a new head coach. Miron Muslic coached second-tier side Floridsdorfer AC since summer. They had the second-worst defence of the league.