Their last league title dates back to 2008. Since then, they have finished in second position six times, three times in third position and thrice outside the top four. The hunger for the league title is big at Rapid and the chances they can win it this time are definitely not lost, although they finished the calender year in fourth position. They sit only one point behind the league leaders and their underlying numbers are quite promising.
On the attacking side of their game, they have created 2.23 xG per game so far this season, their best output since the beginning of the 2016/17 season (they have created more in the 2018/19 lower Play-Offs, but faced significantly worse opponents therein). In comparison to last year's regular season, they have created around 0.3 xG per game more, which adds up to around seven goals over the course of 22 games.
Defensively, they are also quite stable and allowed their opponents slightly more than one expected goal per game, which is around at the the level of the 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons, in which they had their best defensive record during the last few years. In terms of league-wide comparison, they are the second-best team in the league in both disciplines, bettered offensively only by RB Salzburg (2.36 xG created per game) and LASK (1.01 xG conceded).
Although expected goals do not tell us the whole story, they are an important indicator of a team's performance level. Therefore, the numbers tend to correlate quite strongly with teams' final league position. By comparing their numbers this year with those of other high-quality teams of late, we can evaluate their chances to challenge for the title in the current season. The graph shows the top 10 teams since the 2016/17 season (out of a total of 56), ranked by their average xG-difference, and their rank in the final league table.
We can see that the team of headcoach Kühbauer are beaten only by two versions of RB Salzburg, both this and the previous year. Their offensive output is likewise the third-highest of all teams, although there have been some more defensively sound teams. We can therefore conclude that they are definitely in the title race.
Their problem is that not only this year's version of RB Salzburg is in this list, but also two other direct rivals, LASK and Sturm Graz (albeit the latter already quite some levels behind). This is a wider reflection of a general trend this season. The total number of expected goals has risen by about 0.25 per game in comparison to last season. We also observe the highest xG values per game (3.15) since 2016. Post-pandemic football has turned into a chance festival, which is why most teams create more expected goals than last year.
Therefore, the question whether Rapid's better numbers are down to an actual improvement or rather due to a more general trend, remains open. But, given their stats in comparison to the rest of the league, they could finish this season with the best rank since 2008.
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